More specifically, we examine whether sanctions are related to change in conflict dynamics, as recorded by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). ‘Impact’ is here understood as the potential influence sanctions may have on the dynamics of a conflict when they are being threatened, adopted or implemented. 1 However, despite the growing body of sanctions research, surprisingly few studies have addressed what must be seen as the most crucial question, namely whether targeted UN sanctions do have an impact on armed conflicts, and in particular, whether their imposition enhances the chances of a peaceful settlement. The increased use of this policy instrument has been noted by a number of scholars. Targeted sanctions remain one of the instruments more widely used by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to address threats to international peace and security. Thus, sanctions are more of a political instrument than has perhaps been recognized in sanctions research to date. The authors suggest that this is partly rooted in the structure of the UN as an inter-state organization. There is a tendency to use targeted sanctions only in certain types of conflicts. The article demonstrates that there are several instances where the UN has decided not to impose targeted sanctions, although the conditions were similar to those cases that saw such action. It is a first attempt to deal with questions such as the relationship between UN targeted sanctions and armed conflict type, conflict termination and conflict outcome (victory, peace agreements, etc.). This is done by systematizing and analysing data produced by the UN Targeted Sanctions Consortium (TSC) and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). To answer this question the authors correlate UN sanctions policies to measures related to armed conflict in the period 1991–2013.
Capitalizing on the newly released dataset on United Nations sanctions and armed conflicts, this article raises the question whether targeted sanctions have an impact on the dynamics of armed conflicts, and, if they do, in what way.
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