Then the group of experts participated in six to eight-hour individual interviews followed by a two-day group deliberation. “It brought together an interdisciplinary group of scholars with different perspectives on this important question.” The experts systematically read nearly all scholarship written on the climate change-conflict connection and independently assessed the impact of climate change on conflict risk, Roessler explained. “This represents the key innovation of our methodology and contribution,” Roessler said. The expert elicitation was spearheaded by Katharine Mach at Stanford University’s Woods Institute for the Environment with the goal of assembling experts with divergent views to assess the impact of climate change on armed conflict to date and over the next century. Philip Roessler, associate professor of government at William & Mary and co-director of the Center for African Development, is one of the experts and co-authors on the paper. The paper features analysis from 11 climate and conflict experts from fields such as political science, environmental science and economics. The study, “ Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict,” was published today in the journal Nature.
Further, the paper warns that as the negative environmental effects on agriculture, water and other necessities increase, climate change could become a more important cause of armed strife. The experts also say that the impacts of climate change can fan smoldering conflicts into all-out conflagrations. The consensus among experts featured in the study is that climate change is often an important contributing factor in the outbreak of armed conflict, but economic, political and social issues often overshadow it. It warned that the effects of climate change could lead to “population migration within and across international borders, spur crises, and amplify or accelerate conflict in countries or regions already facing instability and fragility.” But exactly what size role does climate change play in civil unrest? A new study aims to find out. In the fall of 2016, during the waning months of Barack Obama’s presidency, the White House released a memorandum titled “Climate Change and National Security.” The memo was a federal mandate to consider the impacts of climate change in the development of national security-related doctrine, policies and plans.
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